Mobility and Migration in the Context of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
Mohammed Ali*
1. Introduction
In December 2019, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was registered in China, Hubei province, Wuhan city (WHO, 2020). Shortly afterward, the virus appeared to be pandemic as it was able to spread across nations affecting the social, economic, psychological wellbeing of billions of people (Cucinotta and Vanelli, 2020). The spread and transmission of this virus from China to new countries, including Ethiopia, is directly associated with the mobility and interaction of people who first contracted the virus and moved to new destinations. In this era of globalization, the modes of transport are well advanced and people move quite frequently, which in turn, readily facilitated COVID-19’s sudden diffusion worldwide. Realizing the critical role human mobility and migration play in the spread of such pandemic as COVID-19, the first and most important measures countries took to contain and control the virus is through the restriction of peoples’ mobility, including international and internal air and inland travels (The New York Times, 2020). In this regard, China has been successful for its blocking intervention has contributed considerably to plunging new cases in the country (Fang et al., 2020; Jiang and Luo, 2020) .
Our world is not new for pandemics as it has existed throughout the history of human society. Human societies have often unwittingly expedited the spread of transmitted contagious epidemic diseases through changes in the crucial relationships among transmitted disease agents and their human and animal hosts. Contagious epidemic diseases have played an active role in the expansion of empires throughout history, as state-level societies introduced endemic diseases into smaller and simpler societies, causing massive population losses and subsequent socioeconomic disorganization. We know from history that the American Indians were depopulated or perished by epidemic infections brought from Europe by colonizers and slaves from Africa (McNeill,1976). The Impact of COVID-19 on Migration and Mobility in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is not an exception when it comes to contagious epidemic diseases. Smallpox, cholera, and influenza, among others, were the most known and recorded devastative diseases in the country (Pankhurst, 1965; 1966; 1975; 1977). Although not well documented, Ethiopia witnessed numerous epidemic incidents in its history and the spread of these epidemics were associated with the mobility and migration of people who had initially contracted the diseases and moved to other places (both at international and internal scale). For instance, what was locally known as ye hedar beshita (it was named so after the epidemic was heaped on in the Ethiopian month of Hedar-November), the Spanish flu was believed to have been imported to Ethiopia from the Gulf of Aden via Berbera and eventually reached Addis Ababa via train. The epidemic was devastative in that it took the lives of 50,000 people countrywide and was likened to ‘a forest fire spreading in dry grassland’ (Pankhurst, 1975, p.111).
Now, the present commentary, though written at a relatively early stage of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, aims at providing an insight into the relationship between the pandemic and mobility in Ethiopia. It argues that the spread of COVID-19 is highly contingent upon the mobility of people.
2. COVID-19 Spreads Rapidly Where there is High Mobility
From a geographical perspective, Anthamatten and Hazen (2011) distinguished three forms of diffusion concerning the spread of epidemics and pandemics: 1) expansion diffusion (diffuses outwards from a place of origin), 2) relocation diffusion (spreads with mobility of people from a place of origin to other places, i.e., through air flights-migration comes here), and 3) hierarchical diffusion (places with high mobility of people and goods are more likely to be affected by viruses than areas with less mobility). Although all the types mentioned above are directly related to mobility, expansion diffusion and relocation diffusion are very important in Ethiopian context as COVID-19 first came from abroad, and now the spread of the virus is immensely intensified in Addis Ababa, where there is high mobility of people and goods, compared to any other places in the country.
For more than two months since the outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020, Ethiopia had a comparatively small number of confirmed cases, largely with people having travel history from abroad or those who had direct contact with the new arrivals (from 13 March to 18 May, there were only 352 confirmed cases). However, the last three weeks saw a dramatic increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases and is spreading expeditiously because of the pervasiveness of transmission in the community, particularly in Addis Ababa. The number of cases are unsurpassably high in Addis Ababa than anywhere in the country. Given that cities are the epicenters of high mobility and interaction, the trend will likely to continue registering unprecedented rate of COVID-19 infection, and thus shifting into an exponential growth trajectory in the coming months.
In 1918, ye hedar beshita ravaged Addis Ababa by killing 10,000 of its inhabitants (Pankhurst, 1975). Given the number of the city’s inhabitants (both permanent and temporary) in those times (i.e., in 1910, the city’s inhabitants were not more than 120,000), the death toll was very high. As the epidemic spread widely, many people left the city dreading the infection. Absconding from areas severely affected by the epidemics was a long-standing tradition in northern Ethiopia. Now, just after a century, another devastative pandemic, COVID-19 came to challenge the very social and economic fabric of human collective existence. The disease spread widely and reached all regional states of Ethiopia. For more than two months since the outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020, Ethiopia had a comparatively small number of confirmed cases, largely with people having travel history from abroad or those who had direct contact with the new arrivals (from 13 March to 18 May, there were only 352 confirmed cases). However, the last three weeks saw a dramatic increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases and is spreading expeditiously because of the pervasiveness of transmission in the community, particularly in Addis Ababa. The number of cases are unsurpassably high in Addis Ababa than anywhere in the country. Given that cities are the epicenters of high mobility and interaction, the trend will likely to continue registering unprecedented rate of COVID-19 infection, and thus shifting into an exponential growth trajectory in the coming months.
As of 14 June 2020, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia reached 3,345[1], with 57 deaths. Given Ethiopia’s limited capacity of testing, daily reports may not capture the real number of people infected by the virus, and thus the number of cases could be higher than what is being reported. The virus is intensified in areas where there is a high volume of mobility and interactions. With 2,479 confirmed cases, Addis Ababa alone accounts for 75 % of the total confirmed cases in Ethiopia. Addis Ketema, unlike all the other sub-cities of Addis Ababa, is the focal point of intense mobility and people-to-people interaction, and thus has been most affected by the virus with 553 cases, followed by Bole sub-city (407 cases) and Gulele sub-city (282 cases). Addis Ketema is where Ethiopia’s as well as Africa’s largest market is located. This means Ethiopians who come from different parts of the country engage in economic transaction either in the form of sellers, brokers or buyers of various goods and services. Moreover, Addis Ketema is an area where the biggest bus station of the country is found, and it is also in this sub-city that many of the slum neighborhoods of Addis Ababa are situated. Having had the largest urban population in Ethiopia and momentous internal and interstate mobility, it is undoubtedly true that the effect of COVID-19 is more devastative for Addis Ababa than any other urban centers in the country.
3. Measures of Mobility Restrictions
The first confirmed COVID-19 pandemic case was registered in Ethiopia on March 13, 2020. Since then, the Ethiopian government declared a five months state of emergency and took a wide range of mobility restriction measures aimed at containing the spread of the pandemic, which included international travel and mobility restrictions to countries hit by the virus, closure of boundaries, as well as domestic movement restrictions[2](interstate and across state mobility). Schools and universities were closed, large gatherings, including meetings and sporting events, were banned. Many of the government employees were allowed to stay and work from home. It was also issued that public transports should carry passengers with half of their capacity. New arrivals (including return migrants, deportees, and foreign nationals) were compelled to stay 14 days in designated mandatory quarantine centers in different parts of the country, the biggest being in Addis Ababa.
It seems that the majority of Ethiopians are not complying with the declaration of the state of emergency in relation to restrictions of mobility and physical proximity. The government’s restrictions of public events, including large gatherings in Idir[3], weeding, mourning, etc. seems to have less impact on most forms of mobility and maintaining the physical distance recommended by WHO and health professionals as it serves as a medium of COVID-19 transmission. In these social gatherings people are unlikely to maintain physical distance and so the spread of the virus. People are still upholding the tradition of social gatherings[4] and share the griefs of their relatives, friends, neighbors, etc. Such gatherings may result in grave consequences. COVID-19 is not a myth as it was believed to be by many Ethiopians before and immediately after the outbreak of the virus in the country. Our people had developed the perception that China and western countries were ravaged by the epidemic because of the sin and dissipation they committed against the will of God and humanity while also maintaining the view that Ethiopia is always under the protection of God. Now, contrary to this assertion, there are ample evidence that show the virus is spreading rapidly with momentous social, economic, and psychological corollaries. COVID-19 is, thus, a real thing that we feel through our sense organs. The people have to come to their sense and try their best to protect themselves from the virus chiefly through the restriction of mobility (i.e., applying stay at home order) and maintaining of physical distance (avoiding physical propinquity and interactions), among other measures.
4. Migrants in the Period of COVID-19
When we examine international migration in light of COVID-19, we may find two groups of migrants:
- Those who are affected by the virus (including migrants living in the host countries and those returned home). COVID-19 has brought difficult situations for many countries across the world and put millions of people in crisis as they lost their jobs (Anadolu Agency, 2020) or their working conditions may expose them to risks of contracting the disease[5]. Irregular migrants and refugees are among those in difficult situations amid COVID-19 travel restrictions as well as because of their irregularity and short-term contracts. For instance, there are Ethiopian irregular migrants who are in precarious conditions as they are stranded in Saudi Arabia[6]. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, thousands of irregular Ethiopian migrants were deported from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE) and neighboring countries (Kenya, Sudan, Somalia) and this added another pressing challenge on the already limited capacity of the Ethiopian government. About 15,000 irregular Ethiopian migrants have returned home so far (IOM, 2020; BBC news, 2020). Given the large number of irregular Ethiopian migrants in those countries or elsewhere, the deportation of more migrants may continue, thereby creating a demanding challenge for the government to contain the virus. Moreover, with many Ethiopian migrants being unemployed in their respective host countries, the inflow of remittances to their homecountry seems to have tumbled significantly (i.e., 23 % for sub-Saharan Africa) (World Bank, 2020). Remittance-dependent families in Ethiopia will considerably be affected by the impact.
- Those who are on the front line fighting against COVID-19. Migrant workers in Europe and North America accounted for 18 and 21 percent respectively (ILO, 2018). In this era of crisis wherein every society is vulnerable, as COVID-19 has knocked on the door of everyone’s house, western countries relied on migrants (OECD, 2020). Regardless of where they work, the contribution of migrants is paramount in the struggle against the virus. For instance, being on the front line, many migrant doctors sacrificed their lives[7]. England and Australia have already large stock of migrant doctors working in their health sectors while Canada and many other countries decided to hire foreign doctors temporarily. Many sectors, including agriculture, and transport need workers to boom their economy. On the other hand, having understood how vulnerable irregular migrants and refugees are, some western countries came to offer health services for migrants, extend their residence permits (i.e., Belgium), and legalize them on pending status (ex. Portugal). COVID-19 has given us an important lesson, a lesson on how we all are dependent on each other, and this may initiate new public policies in the aftermath. In this regard, it is important to ask this question: will COVID-19 change our perception about migration and migrants? The answer will noticeably be seen in the post-COVID-19 era.
5. A Concluding Remark
Any policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic should take into account the economic cost of mobility restriction and its associated impact on the lives of the poor and vulnerable people as well as the extent to which unrestricted mobility affects the spread of the pandemic. Although this commentary has limitation in terms of policy implications, it provides a simple account of the impact of mobility on the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, it offers an insight into the impact of mobility on the spread of the pandemic and on the day-to-day living conditions of the poor. No doubt that restriction on mobility is likely to reduce the spread of the disease. However, such a measure is also likely to deadly affect the economic sector with appalling loss of productivity. A lockdown could crush or create a dearth of import items (i.e., food, fuel, medicine, etc.) and export items (i.e., raw materials such as coffee, hide and skin, spices, textile, flowers, etc.). No export or scarcity of export items means dwindling of hard currency reserves which in turn reduces the capacity of the country to import necessary products. In short, state-led responses, either in the form of short term programs or long term policy measures, must critically and cautiously balance the cost-and-benefit of restricting or loosening human mobility in Ethiopia. Undoubtedly, both extremes are undesirable. Depending on global trends, local circumstances, and available resources, measures can be taken to reduce the inevitable impact of COVID-19 pandemic. In other words, all measures that needs to be taken should be geared towards passing this moment of crisis with minimum friction.
The government should remain, as it has been but more strongly, heedful to make sure COVID-19 is not beyond its control. Otherwise, it will be a misadventure in the country as ye hedar beshita had been a century ago. COVID-19 is real and deadly. We have to learn from our history and the experiences of countries anguished by the impact of COVID-19, including America and Brazil. The leaders of these countries did not take precautions measures at the early stage of the pandemic as they thought the virus would only have a trivial consequence. Now, as we all are witnessing, they are paying the price at the expense of their own people’s lives.
Studies conducted so far, including by CEPHEUS (2020), Geda (2020), and UNICEF (2020). indicated that measures taken by the Ethiopian government to restrict mobility amid COVID-19 have already negatively impacted the economy of the country. Further mobility restrictions or a complete lockdown can hamper the economy seriously, and ultimately generating a major crisis. The poor have already felt the impact more than anyone else. I do not think the government dares to declare a total lockdown unless it gets ready to provide what is indispensable for the poor. Given the government’s limited capacity, this, however, for sure, cannot be materialized. The Ethiopian government seems to have followed a middle path approach to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. One approach is to contain the spread of the virus by restricting mobility on some selected areas or events while still maintaining mobility not to hamper the country’s economy.
As a final remark, the worst scenario, in relation to COVID-19, is yet to come, and thus the Ethiopian government and the people should get ready for this.
*Mohammed Ali (Ph.D.), Africa Institute of Governance & Development, Ethiopian Civil Service University. The author can be reached at: mohammed@cssethiopia.org / clikmohammed@yahoo.com
End Notes
[1] For daily reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia, see the official websites of the Ministry of Health, Ethiopia:https://www.moh.gov.et/ejcc/en/node/196 and Ethiopian Public Health Institute: https://www.covid19.ephi.gov.et/news/5 , and specifically for Addis Ababa, see the official website and Facebook page of Addis Ababa Health Bureau: https://www.addisababa.gov.et/
[2] Domestic movement restrictions imposed by the regional states were later lifted.
[3] It is an informal Ethiopian institution (association) that serves to help each other among members of a group, particularly when a member loses his/her loved ones.
[4] Having an extended relationships, Ethiopians are known to be a collectivist society.
[5] An Ethiopian Ambassador to America, Mr. Fitsum, estimated that some 100 Ethiopians died in the USA after contracting COVID-19. These Ethiopians might have engaged in sectors that are most affected by the virus
[6] I made an interview with an irregular Ethiopian migrant who lost her job just after the first confirmed COVID-19 case in Saudi Arabia on March 2, 2020 as the employer couldn’t pay her monthly salary any longer. Although she wanted to return home, it has become impossible for her, at least for the time being, given she is undocumented. Although, for the last four months, she tried calculatingly and cunningly to come under police custody, it seems that police are reluctant to do so. And thus, she is stranded being in precarious situation.
[7] More than eight doctors who died in England while fighting against COVOD-19 on the front line were migrants.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect ECS’s editorial stance.
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