Considering the last three decades’ accumulated nation-wide crisis, TPLF was not really intended on building democracy, national unity, and social solidarity in Ethiopia. Interestingly, although the transitional government adopted soft diplomatic mechanisms to work with and at times appease the TPLF leaders at various times, they could no longer bear the increasingly diminished role of their presence in Ethiopia’s political field and leadership. They thought something had to be done, something that could dismantle the existing leadership at any cost. Therefore, something strange happened on November 4^th in Ethiopia’s political history when the Tigray Regional State’s forces attacked the country’s military forces.  In an attempt to build a long-term peace and security in Ethiopia, it became imperative that the current leadership had to conduct a law enforcement operation against the TPLF belligerents in Tigray region.

In the next sections, a brief assessment of TPLF’s political legacy in Ethiopia, TPLF’s rebellious acts against the federal government, and the federal government’s operation against the TPLF in Tigray will be addressed. Finally, the piece concludes with a point that argues the operation against TPLF preserves the country as a unified nation ending the interethnic division that divided the country since 1991.

2. The TPLF in Ethiopian Politics

From 1991 to 2019, Ethiopia was led by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of four ethnic based parties that included TPLF, the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and the Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Movement (SEPM). Having established an ethnic-based federalism, the TPLF dominated the Ethiopian politics for almost 27 years, albeit its constituency, the Tigray people, makes up only 6% of the country’s population. The other three parties had only trifling and ceremonial power. Although federalism, as enshrined in the country’s constitution, allowed decentralization of power, regional states suffered from the intervention of the federal government, i.e., TPLF. As there had never been ‘real federalism’ because the ‘real power’ of the country remained in the hands of a few political and military elites mainly drawn from the Tigray ethnic group, the great majority of the Ethiopian peoples (including the Amhara, the Oromo, the Gurage ethnic groups among many others) felt that they were discriminated from ‘real power’ (political and economic). Ethnic federalism provided various ethnic groups the right to promote and develop one’s culture, language and so on, but it also developed distrust between peoples. 

As TPLF settled itself in power, it became totalitarian snubbing many critical conditions and failing to do justice to the complexity of the social problems in the country which in turn ignited a blizzard of animosity and remonstration against the government. Demands for ‘real power’ and democracy were responded with strong hands. The snobbish hard-liners, a small group of the former TPLF fighters and its notorious leaders just not controlled the Ethiopian politics wielding unlimited power & dominating the military & intelligence posts but also they economically enriched themselves with the money they embezzled from the Ethiopian poor. In order to stay on power, they did everything they could, including annihilating civil societies, supressing religious freedoms and political oppositions, destroying solidarity between peoples, and orchestrating interethnic violence in unprecedented ways. With invasive mass scrutiny of the public, and employing an absurdly fluid definition of ‘terrorism’ to justify their actions, they focused on the suppression of peoples’ legitimate questions. They tried to control a worsening situation by force which was the way they imagined to achieve security. The TPLF-led government failed to adapt to emerging realities in the country and the world, and thought it would solve all the problems by torturing and killing dissidents. But this boomeranged, and plunged the people profoundly indignant of the government and became counter-productive making their own place heavily precarious. Generally, the TPLF era in Ethiopia was characterized by low cohesion, social tension, conflict and perceptions of threat among ethnic groups.

3. Simmering Tensions: The TPLF Defying the Federal Government

From 2015 to 2018, Ethiopia had gone through a grim of political crises, including the three-year popular uprising across the country, particularly in Oromia and Amhara regional states, that forced the EPRDF to elect Dr Abiy as the chairperson of the party and the new head of state. This incongruously signalled the removal of the TPLF cliques from their ‘king making and unmaking’ position at the central government. The post-TPLF transition in Ethiopia brought about many changes as Dr Abiy relaxed the rigid political conditions that the country followed for decades, maintaining democratic principles and restructuring the country’s political landscape and legal institutions to promote reconciliation and widen up of political spaces (i.e., thousands of political prisoners were released, outlawed political parties, media outlets and other institutions were allowed to work in the country, and also many new media outlets were opened). However, the TPLF clique, the only group that did everything to prevent Dr Abiy from holding office, was not comfortable with these reforms.   

There were a number of indicators that beckoned war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government was unavoidable. Since Dr. Abiy came to power, there was simmering tensions between the federal government and the TPLF-led Tigray government over reforms. Once the TPLF lost power from the central government, its notorious leaders retreated to Mekelle, the capital city of the Tigray Regional State, to reorganize themselves and strongly stand against Abiy’s reforms. The amplification of tensions, flattening of the country’s peace and the pervasive suffering of innocent citizens are mainly because of the TPLF cliques who sponsored ‘terrorism’ and all malicious acts aimed at destabilizing the country. With all these, the TPLF cliques seemed to have daydreamt of reclaiming the power they lost, though this by no means would be materialized. In addition to the inter-ethnic violence that they orchestrated across the country, TPLF failed to cooperate with the federal government in many ways.  Although the national court issued an arrest warrant on  the notorious Getachew Assefa, the ex-head of Ethiopia’s intelligence & security for more than two decades, who was alleged of committing grim crimes, including anguishing and slaying of dissidents, the Tigray government could not bring the suspect before the law. For three years now, the suspect is on the run, living a fugitive life in Tigray. 

The Ethiopian government provided a framework for dialogue with the TPLF in order to resolve the tension with religious leaders and renowned personalities acting as mediators, conveying messages to the TPLF leadership in Mekelle. The mediation, however, was rejected by the TPLF officials who reportedly told the mediators that it is too late to the peace talks. As the mediators haven’t received any warm hospitality from the TPLF side, they were embarrassed and returned to Addis. Despite efforts by the federal government to ease tensions, the Tigray government (TPLF) continued to defy the federal government and acted as if it was an independent state violating the country’s law, i.e., it went ahead with elections in September despite decision to postpone it. The federal government’s motion to postpone the sixth national elections, which was supposed to be held in August 2020, was postponed to next year, 2021, due to the COVID-19, was ratified by the majority of the country’s house of people’s representatives after the constitution was interpreted by the upper house (house of federation). Very recently, the TPLF deported a newly appointed military officer to Mekelle-based military division.

Rather than acknowledging responsibility, and repenting & demonstrating unpretentious contrition for the damages they inflicted, the TPLF cliques bellicosely continued to mess up the country, preparing itself for a war against the central government, setting up, training, and arming its military forces. All these actions constituted a flagrant violation of the country’s law, threatening the viability of establishing a peaceful country that aimed at moving towards prosperity. Until recently, many Ethiopians accused the federal government of being lenient or unwilling to tackle the problems that have disrupted the Ethiopian peoples across the country and failing to enforce law, and thus pushed for military intervention against the TPLF. Since we know that tolerance has a limit, we have been observing with curiosity and more plainly than ever what measures the government would take against the aggressors. 

The TPLF cliques crossed the red line in provoking the central government when they expeditiously attacked and seized a military base in Tigray region in December 3, killing the military members and controlling many arsenals, an action that has been confirmed by such TPLF leaders as Getachew Reda and Seko Ture. The Ethiopian government immediately reacted declaring a law enforcement military operation against the TPLF cliques. Just before the operation begun, the Chairperson of the TPLF and President of the Tigray Regional State, Debretsion, bragged that his armed forces could vanquish the Ethiopian defence force. He said, “We have prepared our forces. Our preparation is to deter war, but if they force us to fight, we will win. They may come but will not return, Tgray will be their graveyard.” Although those who are fighting from both sides are brothers and sisters (Ethiopians), and some of them might have fallen, the Ethiopian government has been left with no option other than engaging in law enforcement operation aimed at bringing to an end of the TPLF era, and restoring peace & security in the country. Dr Abiy made clear on his Facebook page “By advancing rule of law and holding accountable those that have been looting, destabilizing Ethiopia, we will lay the foundation for lasting peace & harmony”

4. Ethiopia’s Law Enforcement Operation Justified

While some countries, organizations, media outlets and individuals expressed their concern about the on-going operation in Tigray, some others stated that Ethiopia is at the brink of civil war. Their concern about the situation in Tigray region is fathomable given the fact that any wars cause humanitarian crisis such as displacement. However, the concern that the situation will mount into civil war is only speculative because the law enforcement operation in Tigray is the continuation of what the Ethiopian government had been doing in other parts of the country, including Somali, Oromia, Southern and Amhara regional states. The operation in Tigray, pure and simple, is aimed at enforcing law and bringing the TPLF crooks before the law